How To Read Bellevue Housing Market Data

Confused by Bellevue housing headlines that seem to say different things each month? You are not alone. The Eastside market moves fast, and the numbers can be tricky if you are not sure what they measure. In this guide, you will learn how to read the core metrics, combine them to spot real trends, and compare neighborhoods the right way. Let’s dive in.

Key metrics in plain English

Inventory and months of inventory

Inventory is the count of active listings being marketed today. Months of inventory estimates how long it would take to sell all those listings at the current sales pace. As a rule of thumb, under 3 months signals a strong seller’s market, 3 to 6 months leans seller or balanced, and over 8 to 9 months favors buyers.

In Bellevue, new construction and condo towers can add a lot of homes at once, especially downtown or in Bel-Red. Seasonality also matters. Inventory usually rises in spring and summer, then tightens in winter.

Median vs average price

The median sale price is the midpoint of all sales. Half sold for more, half for less. It is less affected by one very high or very low sale. The average price adds all sales and divides by the number of sales, which can be skewed by a few multi-million-dollar closings.

Use the median when you compare neighborhoods or price tiers. In Bellevue, pricing varies a lot between areas like West Bellevue, Bridle Trails, Eastgate, and downtown condos, so a median by submarket is essential.

Days on market (DOM)

DOM is how many days a property is listed before it goes under contract. Some systems track DOM on the MLS, while others track DOM under the current broker only. Median DOM is usually more reliable than the average, which can be skewed by a few long-running listings.

Lower DOM means faster movement. Watch for relists or price changes that can distort the number. In Bellevue, luxury and new-construction homes often show longer DOM even when entry-level homes are moving quickly.

List-to-sale price ratio

This ratio is the sale price divided by the list price, expressed as a percent. Above 100 percent usually means multiple offers or bidding pressure, 98 to 100 percent suggests modest negotiation, and below 98 percent points to buyer leverage.

Confirm if a report uses the original list price or the last list price at contract. Some sellers increase or decrease list price during marketing, which can change this ratio. In hot micro-markets, ratios can push above 100 percent, while condos and high-end homes may close closer to list even when demand is solid.

Price per square foot

Price per square foot can help with apples-to-apples comparisons, but you need context. Make sure you are comparing similar property types and how the living area is measured. In many Bellevue neighborhoods, lot value is a big part of the price. Per-square-foot figures can be misleading if you ignore lot size or home age.

How to read the signals together

Seller’s market signals

When inventory is low, months of inventory sits under 3, median price is rising year over year, median DOM is falling, and the list-to-sale ratio is above 100 percent, you are looking at a seller’s market. Buyers often need strong terms like escalations, faster inspection timelines, or larger earnest money. Sellers can price confidently but should validate with recent comps.

Buyer’s market signals

When months of inventory climbs above 8 or 9, median prices are slipping, DOM is rising, and list-to-sale falls below 98 percent, buyers gain leverage. Expect more price reductions and negotiated concessions. Sellers should consider pre-market fixes, staging, or pricing below competing homes to stand out.

Mixed or seasonal markets

If inventory is inching up, prices are flat, DOM is stable, and list-to-sale hovers near 99 to 100 percent, the market is likely balanced or transitioning. On the Eastside, shifts like these can be seasonal rather than structural. Watch mortgage rates and local employment moves that can change demand quickly.

Small-sample caution

If a small Bellevue neighborhood records only two sales in a month, one at 2.5 million and one at 1.1 million, the median jumps to 1.8 million. That looks like a big move, but it is not reliable with such a tiny sample. Use rolling 3- or 12-month medians and include the number of sales to keep perspective.

Compare Bellevue neighborhoods the right way

Segment by property type and price tier

Separate single-family homes from condos and townhomes. Within single-family, break out entry-level, mid-market, and luxury. Downtown Bellevue condos behave differently than West Bellevue estates, and each price tier can follow its own rhythm.

Normalize your comparisons

Use metrics that let you compare apples to apples:

• Median sale price and median price per square foot for the same property type
• Months of inventory or absorption rate
• Sales volume, so you know how liquid the neighborhood is

If a neighborhood has fewer than about 20 sales in your time window, flag the data as lower confidence.

Your neighborhood data panel

Create a simple panel for each area you track. Include:

• 12-month and 3-month median sale price
• Active inventory and months of inventory (3-month average)
• Median DOM (3-month)
• Median list-to-sale ratio of closed sales (3-month)
• Number of closed sales in the 3- and 12-month windows
• One-sentence takeaway, such as seller’s market, balanced, or buyer’s market

Data confidence notes

Disclose when new construction dominates the closings or when the sample is small. Downtown and Bel-Red can add many units at once, which can distort short-term stats. A quick note on sample size and product mix builds trust and helps you avoid false signals.

Bellevue factors that shape the numbers

New-construction cycles downtown and in Bel-Red can flood the market with inventory at certain points in the year. School-attached neighborhoods play a role in demand and pricing, so compare like with like when you review submarkets. Transit expansions and major employer growth on the Eastside can shift buyer demand by micro-area. Finally, changes in permitting or taxes can influence how much supply comes to market.

Where to find reliable local data

• Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Most local broker reports source their numbers here. For official definitions and monthly summaries, visit the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
• King County Assessor and Parcel Viewer. Use these public records to verify sale history and parcel details. Start at the King County Assessor or open the King County Parcel Viewer.
• City of Bellevue planning and permits. Track development that may add new inventory or change neighborhood dynamics through the City of Bellevue Community Development.
• Case-Shiller regional index. For macro price trends across the Seattle area, review the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

What this means for your move

If you are selling, use months of inventory, DOM, and list-to-sale ratio to set price, plan prep, and pick timing. In a seller’s market, you can launch fast with a polished presentation. In a cooler pocket, small repairs and professional staging can lift your result. Through Compass Concierge, Cheryl can help coordinate and fund approved pre-sale improvements, with payment at closing.

If you are buying, match your strategy to the metrics by neighborhood and price tier. In fast-moving areas, prepare underwriting, touring, and offer terms early. In slower segments, use DOM trends and list-to-sale ratios to negotiate effectively without overreaching.

You do not have to decode the data alone. For a neighborhood-by-neighborhood plan tailored to your goals, connect with Cheryl Hill. Together, we will use the right metrics to guide smart decisions and smooth execution.

FAQs

Which metric matters most in Bellevue?

• No single metric tells the story. Combine months of inventory, median price trend, DOM, and list-to-sale ratio, and always check sample size and property type.

Why did the median price jump this month?

• It is often a small-sample issue or a few higher-priced sales. Use rolling 3- or 12-month medians, compare price per square foot, and review the number of closings.

How do I compare Bellevue with Kirkland or Redmond?

• Compare the same property types using 3- and 12-month medians, months of inventory, and sales volume, and normalize by price tier like entry-level versus luxury.

Is a 100 percent list-to-sale ratio always good for sellers?

• It signals offers at or slightly above list, but you still need to consider appraisals, concessions, and inspection terms to judge overall strength.

How much can I trust days on market?

• DOM is useful if measured consistently and using medians. Watch for relists or MLS resets that can make a home appear newer to the market than it is.